Real Documented Threat or Circumstantial Specter? asks theCouncil on Hemispheric Affairs.

The pairing now known as FARQaeda would represent a disturbing alliance because of the unexamined but equally important backflow, or two-way flow, in this illegal embrace of smuggling junctions.

But how real is the threat? wonders COHA’s Leah Chavla.

no convincing evidence has demonstrated that all or even some of the African drug trafficking agents involved in this lucrative ring are actually members or affiliates of any terrorist organization.

That’s not how the transnational drug traffickers work (for the most part).

Non-simplistic discussion on the jump.

Chavla notes an alternative explanation of the nexus of Lebanese traffickers and armed guerrilla movements. Arab drug dealers use sympathiy with Hezbollah to drum up business.

“…. some of these agents who do claim an affiliation are doing so in order to gain credibility and to obtain other fringe benefits associated with membership in a terrorist organization like Al Qaeda. Such a link would boost their reputations and thus, the volume and revenue of drug trafficking activities.”

The problem, notes Chavla, a lack of direct evidence. As Chavla carefully notes:

“..Without having intercepted one such illicit drug flight, perhaps due to a lack of adequate resources and a paucity of cooperative measures taken by law enforcement or other government officials, it becomes next to impossible to certify any claims about the participants, the cargo, and the stakes involved in the drug trafficking industry.”

She’s not saying it didn’t happen. She’s saying we don’t have enough evidence to constitute proof.

Meanwhile, Douglas Farah at Counterrorism Blog says Al-Qaeda is protecting cocaine flights in West Africa. That’s a more credible story than FARQaeda.