Don’t believe the hype: Israel has survived such flaps “with very few repercussions” in the past.

Israel wants to know: What was Mabhouh doing in Dubai? Why not investigate that?

Australia provides ans answer: Because Hamas wasn’t systemically abusing the passport system on which the global security  depends.

Meanwhile: Get your Mossad T-shirt now!

Resist reacting to tanks, bullets and shells. We must not pick up rocks. The path to justice, freedom, democracy and human rights requires flowers not blood.

Israel’s plan to swallow Palestine has reached a peak… its project is to wipe Palestine from the map… an escalation rather than a settlement is looming in the region.
– Al-Vefagh editorial (Iran)

The fresh Israeli aggression against the sanctity of the al-Aqsa mosque, and the attacks on worshippers by the Israeli security apparatus, represent the latest in a series of Israeli escalations over the past few weeks… they show that [Israel] is determined to escalate and even expand the conflict.
– Al-Quds editorial (Palestine)

The US silence shows that ongoing attempts to resume negotiations have stalled and that those might have to wait until after a new Palestinian intifadah or even war.
– Talal Akwal in Al-Ayyam (Palestine)

But the hawkish Alpher also notes a hard fact: Israel’s policy of extrajudicial assassination does very little to make Israelis more secure in the long run. Indeed, such tactics have reliably served to strengthen its most militant foes.

The assassination of a Hamas bad guy might be a lot more understandable if Israel had a rational and constructive overall strategy for dealing with Hamas in Gaza. But it doesn’t. Israeli security circles appear to be willfully ignoring the failure of all the strategies they have invoked in recent years.

The use of force against non-state actors like Hamas does achieve deterrence, but only temporarily. Economic warfare–the prolonged siege of Gaza and closing of its borders to commerce–has failed to topple or even weaken the Hamas regime there. It has inflicted collective punishment on 1.5 million Gazans and has impoverished the moderate middle class and farmers who used to depend on Israel for trade while empowering Hamas and nouveau riche tunnel operators.

Israel’s certitude that it had justice on its side in that Dubai hotel room (and U.S. supporters are certain to start chiming in) is matched by the reality that its enemies, Hamas and Hezbollah, are stronger than they were three years. They are much stronger than they were ten years ago.

With police investigations already underway in Australia, Ireland, and Germany, the Obama administration is going to deal with this. WashPost and NYT are still playing the story inside, appropriate  in light of the fact that there has been no official U.S. reaction, but that’s not going to last long.

For the Obama administration, this is where the rhetoric of the president’s Cairo address meets the realities of Middle East decisionmaking. Of course, Israel has the right to defend itself, and of course the U.S. assassinates al-Qaeda leaders every day. But the leaders and the publics of Arab countries (like the United Arab Emirates, where the hit took place) that are open to peace with Israel (and some of whom want U.S. help to deter Iran) are not going to be satisfied by the talking points that go over well in Washington and on cable TV.

The pro-American autocracies in the Middle East (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan) are especially helped by Israeli tactics. Vulnerable to accusations of being soft on Israel, they will posture about not allowing Israeli intelligence to operate on Arab soil with impunity. Democratic forces in the Arab world are undermined by Israeli’s assertion of its right to attack its foes anywhere. By enabling undemocratic Arab regimes to pander to public opinion without actually sharing power, Israeli actions actually force Obama to subordinate his goal of reaching out to the Muslim world to his consistent defense of Israel.

That’s fine with Israeli public opinion and it will probably go over well in the United States where cultural sympathies for the Jewish state run deep. But Jewish Israelis comprise less than 3 percent of the public in the Middle East. To the vast majority of the democratically inclined people in the Middle East, Obama will be seen as indulging the lawlessness that he denounces when Arabs engage in it.

This Lebanese opposition commentator is right to sense that the combined interests of Sunnis and Christians in Lebanon (a fractious minority) do not rank high on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s regional agenda–at least not as high as seeking a front line ally in the campaign against nuclear Iran.

Now Taiwan is a channel for Tehran’s nuclear technology needs, says AP Enterprise.

Nasrallah says Hezbollah will hit Tel Aviv airport if Lebanon is attacked.

There is an element of bluff in this. Hezbollah’s ability to take the battle so deep into Israeli territory is questionable. More likely, this is an in-kind response to Hillary Clinton’s pressurizing on Iran (understood among U.S. foes as a pro-Israeli position) that should not be underestimated. The Hezbollah leader’s ability to wage asymmetrical warfare to advance his group’s political agenda is proven. There’s not much doubt that Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon and the region is stronger today than it was before its 2006 mini-war with Israel.

As long as Iran’s internal opposition continues to agitate, there is less of a likelihood of a military strike. But if, by 2011, the opposition movement has faded, and Iran is defiantly moving forward — toward a weapons capability — the likelihood of such a strike goes up significantly.

– SPIEGEL ONLINE.

Plus: WOS surveys Middle East reaction to Hilary’s most forceful intervention yet on the issue of Iran.