Jun 28

Spy war rages between Hezbollah, Israel

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The Daily Star in Beirut on how Hezbollah and Israel are preparing for their next war.

Given the difficulties of recruiting agents within the party, Israel relies heavily on technology to peer beneath Hezbollah’s veil. These technologies vary from the ubiquitous reconnaissance flights of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, or drones, to wire taps and surveillance devices incorporating long-range cameras which can transmit data via short-burst transmissions.

Hezbollah also relies not only on its ever-watchful cadres for its security, but upon the extraordinarily sophisticated signals intelligence and electronic warfare assets it currently possesses.

Its a matter of when, not if.

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Dec 27

Remembering Gaza

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The IDF’s Operation Cast Lead, mounted two years ago this week, is probably the prototype of  Israel military action in Lebanon in coming years. Cast Lead had lethal effect on children in the battle zone, 352 of them.

Mar 02

Obama tilts to Syria

Iran, Lebanon, Middle East, Syria Comments Off

And NOW Lebanon feels sold out.

This Lebanese opposition commentator is right to sense that the combined interests of Sunnis and Christians in Lebanon (a fractious minority) do not rank high on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s regional agenda–at least not as high as seeking a front line ally in the campaign against nuclear Iran.

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Feb 18

Hezbollah prepares for war

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From Iran’s state-controlled PressTV.

Nasrallah says Hezbollah will hit Tel Aviv airport if Lebanon is attacked.

There is an element of bluff in this. Hezbollah’s ability to take the battle so deep into Israeli territory is questionable. More likely, this is an in-kind response to Hillary Clinton’s pressurizing on Iran (understood among U.S. foes as a pro-Israeli position) that should not be underestimated. The Hezbollah leader’s ability to wage asymmetrical warfare to advance his group’s political agenda is proven. There’s not much doubt that Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon and the region is stronger today than it was before its 2006 mini-war with Israel.

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Feb 15

Five years on, Hariri’s assassins elude justice

assassination, Israel, Lebanon, Middle East, political violence, Syria 1 Comment »
Rafik Hariri, Lebanese businessman and political leader, slain in 2005. (Wapedia)

Rafik Hariri, Lebanese businessman and political leader, slain in 2005. (Wapedia)

The politics of assassination are a more decisive factor than ever in Middle East politics.

This week thousands commemorated the fifth anniversary of the death of  Lebanese billionaire Rafik Hariri who was killed in a huge bomb blast in Beirut on February 13th, 2005. But the United Nations investigation of the crime has since stalled and the feeling that politics is trumping justice is hard to avoid. Hariri’s assassination gave rise to Lebanon’s so-called March 14th Cedar Revolution which brought Syria’s foes to power. Now the demographic and political realities of Lebanon have thwarted the movement and created a new status quo. Hariri’s son, Saad, who followed his father into politics, is calling for reconciliation with the government of Syria, the prime (but not the only) suspect in his father’s murder. As al Jazeera noted:

Re-emerging Syrian influence, the persistence of Hezbollah’s role and internal divisions have all dealt steady blows to the alliance that was brought together by opposition to Damascus.

Is justice possible? Continue reading »

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Feb 14

Israel’s assassination campaign

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The assassination of Hamas leader Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai was just one aspect of a wide ranging effort by the Zionist state to target its armed opponents, says The Times of London.

More details of the hit from Intelligence Online via Haaretz: ten agents participated including three women, all traveling on European passports.

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Feb 12

Mideast war coming?

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Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal stokes speculation of a regional war, and Israel’s Ynet News plays the story big.

Electronic Lebanon tamps it down:

Even through the threat of war with Israel is ever-present, neither Israel nor Hizballah seem to have the appetite for another war in the short term.

Analysis: If there is a war, Hamas doesn’t want to fight Israel alone as it got punished in the Gaza war. Meshaal said as much. The Lebanese prefer not to be testing ground for Israeli experiments in “deterrence,” which usually (not always) involve civilian casualties, said to be inadvertent.

None of which means there won’t be war.

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Feb 05

Will the U.S. deal with Hezbollah’s top farmer? (No, but yes)

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Washington  doesn’t really have a choice.

If the U.S. wants to support a democratic political order and clean water in Lebanon–both good ideas–it has to deal with Hezbollah. The Shiite party/militia, while officially proscribed by the U.S. government  as a terrorist organization,  also plays by the rough but recognizable rules of Lebanese democracy.

Hezbollah, representing the country’s impoverished and frequently rural Shiites,  has gained control of the country’s Ministry of Agriculture.  Last week U.S. ambassador Michele Sison told the London daily Asharq Alawsat that U.S. support for the country’s agricutural sector would continue.

We [also] continue to support [clean] water management projects, because our studies show that almost 50 percent of [clean] water sources may be lost if they are not managed in a good manner, and we are working on a number of sites to ensure this. In cooperation with state institutions and municipalities, we have contributed to providing clean water to around 27,000 people in the al-Shouf and Bekka regions.

Sison added that U.S. could have no dealings with the Hezbollah minister, Hussein al-Hajj Hassan, but added, “The programs that are present will continue.”

In other words,  the Lebanese technocrats get U.S. money but the minister gets no face time with Washington interlocutors.  Hezbollah can live with the arrangement. Can the U.S. Congress?

The Beirut daily Naharnet, no friend of Hezbollah, takes note.

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Jan 11

Amateur hour for US media on terrorism

Lebanon, Middle East Comments Off

Rami Khouri in The Daily Star on what American TV experts won’t talk about:

“… if the starting point for fighting terror is only the terror attacks themselves and the societies from which they emanate, without a fuller acknowledgment of the wider cycle of political violence that also includes sustained aggressive policies by the US, the United Kingdom, Israel, Arab governments and others in the region, we will only perpetuate the current insanity mentioned earlier: the simultaneous proliferation of terrorism, American armed forces, Israeli assassinations, and other elements of the full cycle of political violence in the Arab-Asian region.
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