This Lebanese opposition commentator is right to sense that the combined interests of Sunnis and Christians in Lebanon (a fractious minority) do not rank high on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s regional agenda–at least not as high as seeking a front line ally in the campaign against nuclear Iran.

Rafik Hariri, Lebanese businessman and political leader, slain in 2005. (Wapedia)

The politics of assassination are a more decisive factor than ever in Middle East politics.

This week thousands commemorated the fifth anniversary of the death of  Lebanese billionaire Rafik Hariri who was killed in a huge bomb blast in Beirut on February 13th, 2005. But the United Nations investigation of the crime has since stalled and the feeling that politics is trumping justice is hard to avoid. Hariri’s assassination gave rise to Lebanon’s so-called March 14th Cedar Revolution which brought Syria’s foes to power. Now the demographic and political realities of Lebanon have thwarted the movement and created a new status quo. Hariri’s son, Saad, who followed his father into politics, is calling for reconciliation with the government of Syria, the prime (but not the only) suspect in his father’s murder. As al Jazeera noted:

Re-emerging Syrian influence, the persistence of Hezbollah’s role and internal divisions have all dealt steady blows to the alliance that was brought together by opposition to Damascus.

Is justice possible?

Syria was immediately suspected  in Hariri’s mudrder because of the sheer size and sophistication of the ambush which destroyed Hariri’s motorcade and killed two dozen people. Only an organization with sophisticated planning and weaponry capabilities could have mounted such an attack.  Syria, whose military forces then occupied the country and dominated its political system, had the most reason to fear the Saudi-backed businessman, who was planning to enter politics with the goal of ending the Syrian occupation. Like its neighbors Israel, Syria also has a history of resorting to assassination to protect its interests. The backlash against Syria after the assassination empowered the pro-Western March 14 movement forced Damascus to withdraw its forces.

The initial findings of a special United Nations tribunal lent credence to the suspicions, and four pro-Syrian Lebanese general were detained in connection with the case. But the first prosecutor left the case  and the suspects have been released. In a piece for the New York Times yesterday, Michael Young, a pro-Western columnist for the Beirut Daily Star, blames the second U.N investigator, and all but recommends abandoning the probe rather than let it drag on. His frustration is understandable but his conclusion seems premature, as the investigation continues and new information has continued to emerge.

In a summary of the case yesterday, LeMonde (in French) reported that while decisive proof is lacking, the U.N. investigators have developed evidence implicating Hezbollah, the political/party militia which represents the country’s Shiite majority. The investigators have traced a network of cell phone used by the bombers to Hezbollah officials, Le Monde said.

The alleged role of Hezbollah, first reported by the German newsweekly Speigel Online, last year, does not preclude a Syrian role, as the Hezbollah has long allied itself with Syria. Hezbollah rejects the allegation. Yesterday, the group’s news site, Al Manar, reported President Obama called for justice in the Hariri case in straightfoward terms. Hezbollah is clearly heartened by Saad Hariri’s opening to Syria and his criticism of  Israel.

In short, Rafik Hariri’s rivals for power have benefited from his violent departure and his assailants elude justice.